What is the Augur prediction market? It’s got some updates coming soon!

4 min read

We’ve got some big news for you… Augur is going live!

On July 9th Augur will be deploying to the Ethereum mainnet. All current contracts will be frozen and balances will migrate over to the main network. Migration starts at 18:01 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) and should only take a few hours to complete. Services will have to be updated as they will need the new contract address to function.

A pro tip for Augur hodlers, make sure to transfer your REP out of any custodial decentralized exchanges you might have it in. Non-custodial decentralized exchanges and centralized exchanges should be fine, but be sure to check yours!


Not sure what Augur is? Don’t worry BlockchainWTF has your back!

Augur is a decentralized peer-to-peer prediction market platform. People can use the platform to place bets on anything. And I really mean anything… From sports, crypto markets, election results, scientific or medical discoveries even what the weather will be tomorrow.

Still not sure what I mean? Here are some examples from the testnet:

  • Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2019 NBA Championship?
  • Will Bitcoin trade at $10,000 or higher at any time before the end of August 2018?
  • Will SpaceX successfully complete a Mars landing by the end of 2018?

Everybody knows talk is cheap, but with Augur I can put my crypto where my mouth is and actually buy stakes in the outcome of these events.


Markets and Stakes

Anyone can create a market for propositional betting on Augur’s platform. Once a market is created people can buy shares in the outcome of that event. If you correctly predict an event you are monetarily rewarded.

Stakes can be purchased with ether and other coins, but Augur’s token is REP. Short for reputation it is an ERC-20 token that is used to score an individual’s reputation on the platform. REP cannot be mined. It is instead earned by creating markets and making correct predictions. Incorrect predictions will have your REP redistributed to the individuals that made the correct predictions. It also must be used. If you don’t keep predicting events you can be fined 20% of your REP tokens.

So how can you trust Augur market’s to correctly payout based on what happened in reality? Well you don’t need to trust it. The system is set up in a way that incentivizes accurate reporting. REP holders have the ability to dispute the outcome of any market for a limited time after it has been resolved. Triggering a dispute round lets other REP holders stake one of the market’s possible outcomes. If the current outcome is overturned anyone that staked the new winning outcome receives up to a 50% return on their investment. Augur believes that group prediction is a superior system then individual prediction.

My favorite aspect of Augur is that it allows you to trade stakes in events you have purchased to others. Say I buy many cheap shares of of an outcome that is unlikely to happen, like SpaceX landing anything on Mars before the end of the year. If Elon Musk comes out and reveals he has a flying saucer days away from entering the Martian atmosphere the odds of that market will drastically shift. I can choose to hold onto my shares until the market resolves or sell them off to anyone that’s interested. Although you better do it quick before the rest of the market wises up!

Learn more about the Augur prediction market platform here!


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